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Probable consequences of certain US actions with respect to Vietnam and Laos
Date of Creation:
May 25, 1964
Date of Declassification:
April 12, 1976
Type of Document:
Special National Intelligence Estimate
Level of Classification:
Status of Copy:
Pagination, Illustration:
18 p.
Probable consequences of certain US actions with respect to Vietnam and Laos [estimate of US actions against North Vietnam aimed at reducing Viet Cong activity in South Vietnam and Laos, and possible responses to US activities. US military actions will consist primarily of assistance in South Vietnamese air and naval operations against North Vietnam; operations will range from reconnaissance, to strikes on targets supporting DRV activity in Laos and South Vietnam, to strikes against the DRV with possible overt US military involvement. As US psychological and diplomatic actions, the US will inform Peking, Hanoi and Moscow that US intentions are limited; 5,000 combat troops will be stationed in Thailand; air, naval and ground strike units will be deployed to the Western Pacific and South China Seas; increased military and administrative support will be provided to South Vietnam; a new Geneva Conference should be averted. The North Vietnamese response will be to agitate world opinion to bring about a new Geneva Conference; Viet Cong and Pathet Lao will be ordered to refrain from dramatic new attacks; lower terms for negotiations will be proposed in expectation of being able to renew insurrection at a later date. Soviet and Chinese response: China will proceed with caution to avoid confrontation with US forces; the USSR will refrain from military activity and use influence to insure a negotiated settlement. Assessment of Hanoi's understanding of US intentions; strength of Viet Cong forces in South Vietnam; North Vietnamese capability to augment Viet Cong and Pathet Lao strength; Hanoi's defense capabilities; Hanoi's relations with China and the USSR; goals and intentions of China and the USSR]. Special National Intelligence Estimate, SNIE 50-2-64, and TS No. 0038277. May 25, 1964. 18 p. TOP SECRET/LIMITED DISTRIBUTION/CONTROLLED DISSEM. Declassified Apr. 12, 1976.
Declassified Documents Reference System Location: